Progress City, U.S.A.

Aside from the brief distraction of Comic-Con last week, the entirety of discussion in the online Disney community recently seems to have centered around the “leaked” blueprint that supposedly shows an upcoming expansion for Florida’s Fantasyland. With no comment from Disney, except a possibly telling statement from Imagineering that they have nothing new to announce “at this time,” all that’s left to go on is speculation and a few vague facts from a handful of sources. So, let’s try and whittle down the possibilities at least a bit.

The first question everyone had when the plans appeared was whether or not they were real. While no one I know personally can confirm this specific plan, I’ve had reliable people confirm that at least the various elements of the plan have been discussed at WDI and are not just fanboy speculation. This led to the next question: was this plan a legitimate WDI concept for the area, or just a bunch of real (and therefore plausible) rumors that had been collected together to fool people?

This is an area in which we’ll have to trust a number of prominent bloggers, as they’ve circulated the news recently that the plans are, in fact, from Imagineering and that Disney management is none too happy about their leak. This has been confirmed by Al Lutz in his recent update at MiceAge, and Lance at Screamscape, among others. So if the plans are real, how real are they? We all know that even the most definite, fully-designed attraction can vanish in a puff of smoke if something goes wrong. Projects much better known that this – projects that have been publicly announced! – have fallen by the wayside many times in Disney’s past.

Any analysis of the rumors must also factor in consideration of the motives behind the leak, possibilities for which have been mentioned in an earlier thread by our valued poster “Another Voice.” Of course, there’s always the chance that someone in the know decided to leak a juicy tidbit to a friend and it wound up online. But there’s always the possibility that the leak was an attempt by an Imagineer to drum up public support for their project, or to affect some desired political goal inside the company. With the fiscal year approaching its end, Imagineers could be trying to justify their positions, or to drum up some additional funding. It could also have been an intentional leak, designed to draw attention away from other Disney woes – some have speculated online that it was ballyhoo to distract from economic issues or even the recent monorail fatality.

One subject that online discussions about the leak seem to return to time and time again is the popular supposition that the plan is Disney’s official retort to The Wizarding World of Harry Potter, which opens at Universal’s Islands of Adventure park next year. Some seem to think, with varying degrees of hyperbole, that Disney is worried they’ll take a huge hit in attendance from Potter’s arrival in Orlando and are planning a wave of new attractions to fight back. Others, including “Another Voice,” insist that Disney management is not at all concerned with the new competition.

Rendering of Hogwarts Castle for The Wizarding World of Harry Potter – no cartoonish rendering here!

I tend to believe that this is the case; Disney has maintained their market share fairly consistently over the years and concerns about competition seem to have faded away. To put it more pessimistically, if you look at the things they’ve chosen to offer in recent years, it’s hard to believe that they don’t think that guests will swallow anything that they put out if they just slap the Disney name on it. A company that respects its customers and feels the need to compete for their dollars does not create something like Stitch’s Great Escape. But, having said this, I still find the timing interesting from a historic standpoint.

Conceptual rendering of Hogsmeade Village from The Wizarding World of Harry Potter

Having followed Disney rumors online for quite a while now, the last time I can remember such a quantity of “insider-vouched” speculation going on was in 1999 – coinciding exactly with the impending opening of Islands of Adventure. The story at the time was that Disney was indeed concerned about the new competition; after all, Animal Kingdom had just opened to less than overwhelming attendance. Universal invested heavily in Islands of Adventure, using a staff heavily populated by laid-off Disney Imagineers, and many of its major attractions looked to top some of Disney’s offerings. It also featured a few attractions, including the Dueling Dragons coaster, that bore a striking resemblance to concepts originally developed for the Animal Kingdom’s abandoned Beastly Kingdom area. Disney head Michael Eisner saw the new park as a challenge to Disney’s dominance in Orlando, and allegedly allowed Imagineers to develop a slate of ambitious new projects which would be greenlit should the new Universal park prove a success. It seemed that Orlando was on the verge of a theme park arms race.

Sadly, it all came to naught. There’s been a lot written about why, exactly, Islands of Adventure never drew even a sizable fraction of the crowds it expected those first years. The park was gorgeous, and wonderfully themed in some parts. It contained an ambitious slate of attractions, and one – The Amazing Adventures of Spider-Man – is among the greatest dark rides of all time. Unfortunately, over the years, park maintenance took a downturn and there was a lack of expansion due to a series of changing corporate owners that held no interest in the theme park business, but in those first years it was quite a jewel. Still, a botched pre-opening ad campaign completely failed to create awareness of the new park, and instead misguidedly tried to create an identity for the entire resort as something called “Universal Studios Escape.” This disastrous campaign left potential guests confused, and unaware that Islands of Adventure was a completely new park. Disney never got the competition it expected, and the grand plans to best Universal were abandoned.

It’s easy to see how, despite the sudden resurgence of so many rumors, Disney wouldn’t see the new Universal expansion as competition. After all, Universal gave it their all in 1999 and still failed. And while I do believe than in the long term Disney will remain fairly bulletproof due to their space in the collective consciousness, the upcoming Harry Potter attraction will have an effect. Certainly in the short-term, and possibly in the long-term.

Conceptual art for The Three Broomsticks tavern from The Wizarding World of Harry Potter

I think it’s sometimes difficult for Disney fans and theme park fans in general to step back and put themselves in the mindset of the general public. As the person who, since childhood, was always known as the “Disney guy,” I’m usually the go-to person for anyone at school or work who is planning a trip to Orlando. For most of these people, usually first-timers, the Orlando theme park landscape is kind of nebulous. There’s “Disney” or “Disney World”, of course, and that usually means the Magic Kingdom. Then there’s EPCOT/EPCOT Center, and Universal, and that animal thing (Is that Busch Gardens? Is Sea World part of Disney too?). These people have no resort loyalty, and the second they see that Harry Potter is in Orlando they’re going to start packing their bags no matter which park he’s in. They might still think Universal is in Disney World, and will have no idea what Islands of Adventure is, but they’ll call the number on the screen to make their reservations. I have a number of friends, all otherwise perfectly respectable adults, who’ll flip out when they see the Potter art and want to go – immediately. I don’t know if any of them have ever been to Walt Disney World, or if they even like theme parks, but they’ll be peeling out of the driveway before I even get to give them directions.

This is the danger to Disney in the short-term. I’ve no idea if people will take a pass at Disney parks for a while, but I know that they will spend a day at Islands of Adventure. If the new ride, allegedly to be called Harry Potter and the Forbidden Journey, lives up to its potential, then Islands of Adventure will finally get the attention it deserves. Even if it’s only for a short time, I would imagine that any dips in Disney park attendance would mostly affect Animal Kingdom or the Hollywood Studios. Those are always the first parks to feel the effects of any downturn, anyway.

The danger to Disney in the long-term is impossible to determine; but while it will most likely be negligible, it’s possible for Universal to do some real damage. This, for the most part, is in the hands of Universal. The Harry Potter area will bring them attention that they’ve rarely, if ever, received on a national scale. If they leverage the attendance boost into a wave of new expansion and manage to expose those new guests to the other legitimately impressive attractions in the park, it’s possible that Islands of Adventure will finally make its name in the public consciousness ten years after its opening. Will they ever overcome Disney’s lead? No. But if they play their cards right they can certainly cement a permanent rise in attendance and start, at the very least, to threaten the less-attended Disney parks.

The interaction of these events with the Fantasyland leak is speculative, but again I point out that this is the most heated period of rumor-peddling since the debut of Islands of Adventure. Not only have we had the Fantasyland leak, but there’s also been a resurgence of talk about the Animal Kingdom expansion. Then there’s the always-forthcoming Monsters, Inc. coaster at the Studios, and some sort of rehabilitation of EPCOT’s Imagination pavilion. In the Magic Kingdom, there’s the often-rumored and much needed remodeling of Tomorrowland. And as for Fantasyland, with all the talk of the leaked plan there’s been no meaningful discussion of the Personal Experience Portal, the X-Band/RFID technology, or any of the other rumored technological upgrades for existing attractions.

Al Lutz, in his story today, says that Imagineering is mad because the Fantasyland plan was to be their big reveal for the upcoming D23 convention. Of course, some more cynical readers suggested that they’re mad because the plan they’re going to announce is pared down from the leaked designs and will leave fans cold. That’s definitely a possibility, but if WDI does plan to bring a worthwhile plan to announce I think the leak might have had its benefits. First, they got a massive and unsolicited focus group, as well as an enormous amount of publicity. If they do announce a plan, and if it’s of comparable scale, they’ll actually have details and renderings that will far surpass the vague leaked blueprint.

The key, of course, is whether they’ll announce anything. Lutz is the most significant indicator that they will, but we won’t know until then what the scale of the remodeling will be. At the very least, week by week we seem to be learning more. These plans are real, the intent to expand the park is real, and now we just have to see if they’re going to make up for past mistakes by making this something really special.

Robin Barber, Vice President of RFID wristband manufacturer Precision Dynamics, displays wristbands that the company has produced for various theme parks (Los Angeles Times)

Hoping for more information to emerge about the rumored NextGen / Personal Experience Portal project, I was fascinated to see an article in the Los Angeles Times today about Precision Dynamics Corp. The California company was founded fifty years ago to manufacture wristbands for hospital patients, but has found success in recent years creating RFID bands for amusement parks and attractions.

Using the new technology, the article says, the wristbands can be used as “high-security admission passes, cashless debit cards, hotel room keys and a form of identification to reunite lost children with parents.” These are all possible uses that have been mentioned for Disney’s “X-Band” program as well. The Precision Dynamics wristbands broadcast a unique 16-character code when triggered by a reader, which then uses the code to serve as an access key for debit accounts or electronic door locks. In Disney’s plan, it could also be used to access pre-recorded guest information to enable interactive features within the parks themselves.

It’s unknown whether Disney is working with Precision Dynamics or developing a technology of their own, but as Precision Dynamics holds a patent on their design it’s unsure how much leeway Disney would have in duplicating the idea. Disney’s interest in the technology is understandable; the Times article points out that guests using wristbands tend to spend up to 25% more at parks and resorts due to the ease (and, one assumes, the “Monopoly money” factor) of cashless transactions. The RFID chips are programmable, allowing guests to add amounts to their families’ wristbands at kiosks throughout the park.

The article underlines a few concerns about the technology as it stands now. The first is cost; RFID wristbands sell for $1 apiece, while the computerized readers cost $450. While this would obviously be small change for Disney, it would require a substantial initial outlay if they were to roll out the technology across all the resorts. One suspects that the cost of the wristband would be passed along to the consumer, which would only add to already-steep admission fees.

Privacy concerns are also a critical issue when this technology is discussed. The general public might not yet be aware of RFID, but the privacy and tech-savvy communities have had their eye on it for years. Precision Dynamics says that the wristbands must pass within inches of a reader to be activated, and that they’re programmed to expire after a single day’s use. RFID advocates say the technology is secure, but no doubt Disney would want to rigorously test this rather than risk turning Walt Disney World into a global magnet for “haxors” and scam artists.

Disney isn’t mentioned in the article, so it’s mere speculation to connect the Precision Dynamics wristbands with Disney’s own plans. Still, it gives a glimpse into what this technology is being used for now, and what direction Disney might go in the future.

An important addendum to the below article about the rumors surrounding the remodeling of Florida’s Fantasyland and Imagineering’s new technology initiative.

I have further reason to believe that WDI is indeed working on something involving the “NextGen” (or “NGE”) technology called the “Personal Experience Portal.” I don’t have any information on what the portal, or “PEP”, would actually entail, but if it meshes with previous reports it might possibly relate to the interface by which guests could enter their personal information before their trip. The information would be embedded on their RFID tags and allow various interactions in the park. This is merely speculation, though.

Another question about the RFID technology was how it would be implemented – it was widely assumed that the RFID chips would be implanted into guest passes. It appears, though, that the program could use wristbands, possibly called “X-Bands”, to contain guest information. Disney has used wristbands before for Extra Magic Hours, but I’m surprised that they’d use them for this program – it seems rather unwieldy. Then again, this is all based on the faintest rumors so we don’t really know how it will all come together.

Remember – this is all speculation based on hints, but it’s interesting enough that I thought I’d share. One thing is certain, and it’s that Disney is working on something. For those of you viewing from Orlando or Burbank… you can click below to email me…

One of your theme parks requires a critical upgrade. Installation may require rebooting. Proceed (Y/N)?

On again, off again, on again? The saga of the Magic Kingdom’s Fantasyland renovation continues with a new rumor from an unexpected source – Al Lutz.

The MiceAge impresario has made a name for himself over the last decade by revealing the inner workings of Team Disney Anaheim, serving as the first to warn of the oncoming storm that was Paul Pressler. He assiduously documented the resort’s steep decline under the reign of Pressler and his successor Cynthia Harriss, including the disastrous opening of California Adventure, as well as its revival under the auspices of Matt Ouimet. His spies feed him a constant stream of rumors about upcoming changes to Disneyland and California Adventure, but rarely does he comment on Walt Disney World.

It thus came as a surprise when Walt Disney World featured prominently in his recent update. You’ve probably heard the news by now; according to Lutz, not only do plans for a redevelopment of Fantasyland continue in Florida, but they now have an added technological twist. Disney CEO Bob Iger is said to have already visited Orlando twice this year for presentations on the subject, and thought nothing has yet been greenlighted, Iger has given the plan his initial approval.

The rumors of a Fantasyland facelift began to circulate online last year. With California Adventure debuting a new dark ride based on The Little Mermaid in 2011, speculation began that Florida’s Magic Kingdom would benefit by receiving a clone of the E-Ticket. The ride would allegedly be placed on the former site of the 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea lagoon, and would anchor a newly redesigned Fantasyland.

Orlando’s Fantasyland, constructed in 1971, has the unfortunate distinction of being the oldest iteration of that land in all the Disney parks. The Magic Kingdom’s older sibling, Disneyland, received an entirely new Fantasyland in 1983, the same year that Tokyo Disneyland opened. Paris and Hong Kong followed, but despite a few cosmetic alterations Florida’s Fantasyland has remained the same.

The bucolic Fantasyland of Disneyland Paris

In fact, in that time Fantasyland has lost two attractions – the Skyway and 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. It also tragically lost Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride in favor of The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, and the space originally held by the Mickey Mouse Revue is now Philharmagic. There has been no expansion – by my count, Disneyland’s Fantasyland houses thirteen attractions while Orlando’s only has eight. Disneyland lacks only Philharmagic, as their Winnie the Pooh ride is in another land; Walt Disney World is missing the Circus Train, Canal Boats, Castle Walkthrough, Matterhorn, and dark rides based on Alice in Wonderland, Pinocchio, and – sigh – Mr. Toad.

While the planned renovations in Orlando would not come close to adding all these attractions, they would allegedly give the area a complete makeover and add the Mermaid E-ticket. Other less frequently repeated rumors from last year also mentioned a family rollercoaster themed to the minecars from Snow White and the Seven Dwarves, and the subsequent conversion of the old Snow White dark ride to something based on Beauty and the Beast.

These plans, along with all of the other expansion ideas for Florida, were said to be boxed last year when the economy went sour. As the Disney parks remain packed in Orlando, though, it’s hoped that the cash spigots are now open again.

According to Lutz, these plans are currently fighting their way through the gauntlet of the budgeting process and would indeed include the addition of the Mermaid attraction. The real surprise here is the technology that Lutz claims Imagineers hope to utilize in their remodeled versions of existing attractions.

Wait, this thing must be broken – it says you sat through Sounds Dangerous

Radio frequency identification, or RFID, is an emerging technology that many companies are now using to track information. The technology has seen a wide variety of uses, from embedded identification information in passports to swipeable keycards for mass transit and credit transactions. RFID involves a small integrated circuit that can either actively transmit information or passively wait to be activated by a remote source. The potential for the technology is nearly limitless, as are the privacy concerns surrounding its use.

Lutz claims that Imagineers hope to use RFID technology in concert with their new Fantasyland attractions. Tiny RFID chips could be embedded in park passes or other items, and if programmed with the right data could allow attractions to access personalized information about each guest. A crude analogue would be the old E.T. attraction at Universal, where guests would swipe cards when boarding and be greeted by name at the end of the ride. Using RFID, Disney could program chips with far more than a guest’s name.

This initiative, which is apparently referred to at WDI as “Next Generation” or “NextGen”, would allegedly begin at Walt Disney World but soon spread to California and beyond. Disneyland’s 750,000 annual passholders would be a prime target for these embedded chips, which would not only facilitate ride interactions but also allow the tracking of spending habits.

Upon the release of Lutz’s report, a number of sources chimed in to collaborate his story. Apparently WDI has very high hopes for RFID, and are looking at a number of ways to incorporate the technology into all aspects of the park experience. Possible uses involve upgrades to FastPass that would remove the need for physical card transactions, keyless room entry at the resorts, and integration with Photopass and other programs.

The other obvious reason for this expensive initiative is the potential for Disney to track everything guests do in the parks, from spending and eating habits to how long they’re waiting in line. While many will no doubt balk at the ominous potential for misuse of this system, it’s certain that Disney is already doing everything they can to track guest information. At least now they’ll be getting accurate information, which could possibly bode better than their existing survey methodology in which guest questionnaires can be worded to evoke a desired response. Of course, statistics can always be made to lie in order to produce a certain outcome, but the sheer amount of data generated by RFID tracking would make it difficult to skew conclusions and, say, pretend no one rides the Carousel of Progress or that anyone likes the Tiki Room UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT. It would also show me riding the WEDway over and over and… over and over, and I’m fine with Disney knowing that.

“Would you like an apple too, DEB-BIE FROM ALB-ER-QUER-QUE?”

There are many possible creative uses for this technology, and I hope that WDI comes up with something really spectacular. They just have to be really, really careful about how they incorporate it. I can’t imagine anything potentially cheesier than having Peter Pan waving at the end of his ride and giving everyone in your boat personal shout-outs – talk about yanking you out of the illusion. The worst thing possible would be for them to incorporate this new technology and have it constantly screaming LOOK AT THIS! The absolute greatest moments of Disney illusioneering come when it’s totally unclear how an effect is achieved. The ballroom ghosts at the Haunted Mansion have befuddled guests for years – the focus is not the technology but the illusion. RFID should be used to make totally random and surprising things happen throughout the park, but not in a way that guests see it coming or immediately know why it happened. This is a fine line that the Imagineers are walking, and it can wind up astonishing or tacky. Here’s hoping they’re judicious.

Of course, keep in mind that this is all still unapproved. Al Lutz knows Disneyland gossip well, but has been known to get things wrong about Florida in the past. Enough people, though, have chimed in with words of support that this feels real. Hopefully the greenlight will come soon; those parks aren’t getting less crowded and Fantasyland isn’t going to fix itself.

UPDATE: Silly me – I write all this only to find out that Foxx had already posted a far more thoughtful dissection of the 1971 Fantasyland with several perceptive critiques and suggestions. I had never considered the obvious stylistic shift from Fantasyland West to East – indeed, if the entire land had as much atmosphere as the old Skyway station area it would be a great piece of design. I had always hoped that the 20K site would partially be used for a new version of Toad – where it, Pooh, and an Alice dark ride could collectively form an enclave of British facades to transition from the Italian and Gothic sections to the west. Foxx is correct – Fantasyland needs another body of water, and the return of certain landscaping elements. As seen in the photo at the top of this story, there’s a gaping hole where there should be some sense of depth and a back “wall” to the area. As it is, there’s only blue sky…